EMERGING CONSUMER TRENDS

The Most Complete Segmentation to Understand Recessionary Impact

Retail Resilience Score

Consumer concerns about financial and job security, health and outlook on the country are shifting faster than ever – and are critical for brands and retailers to understand.

The Numerator Retailer Resilience Score, shown here for the affluent, health-conscious consumers (Life on Pause = 19% of HHs), measures retail channel and retailer performance. Life on Pause is one of six consumer segments identified in the Numerator Recovery Planning Segmentation Study of 70,000 verified shoppers. The score is calculated from the difference of two metrics: % of Household penetration and the % of Spend, resulting in the Retailer Resilience Score.

Both the Recovery Planning Segmentation Study and the Retailer Resilience Score will be updated quarterly to help brands, analysts and retailers understand consumer behavior across the six segments given the dynamic nature of job security, financial security, health concerns, and more.

The analysis focuses on the index of the ‘Life on Pause’ segment for specific retailer channels and specific retailers, quantifying the opportunity that retailers have with these high-value consumers. The ‘Life on Pause’ segment is experiencing financial stability but has higher than normal concern about health, increasing the likelihood of switching shopper behaviors.

Download the report to discover more about the six segments in three themes: Unbothered (either Full Steam Ahead or Living My Frugal Life); Coping (Life on Pause or Pushing Forward) or Anxious (Scared & Struggling or Glass Half Full) and how the Recovery Planning Segmentation Study tracks consumers in this fluid environment.

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Top 5 / Bottom 5 Retail Channel Resilience Score

Channel Resilience Scores

Top 5 / Bottom 5 Retailer Resilience Score

retail resilience score

High level findings include:

  • The five channels best poised to benefit from the spend-ready Life on Pause segment include the Online, Liquor, Food, Club and Baby & Toy channels.
  • The five retail channels at most risk as the Life on Pause consumers make other choices to protect their health by limited trips and staying at home include Dollar, Gas & Convenience, Mass, Discount and Auto.
  • Walmart has the greatest risk in the Mass segment with a Retailer Resilience Score of -18. For comparison, Target has a Score of 11. In essence, Target is gaining more than a fair share of spend with the Life on Pause segment during the COVID-Recessionary period, while Walmart is losing ground.
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