White Paper
Jun 16, 2020

Household Penetration Acceleration Score

People social-distancing while waiting in line to shop

COVID-19 and the economic fallout has dramatically shifted consumer behavior. Marketers need to go beyond topline sales and understand the underlying changes in consumer behavior (household penetration, buy rate, spend per trip and trips per household) to project future sales and plan for the future.

In the Numerator Household Penetration Acceleration Score, we decompose sales for sixteen center-store food and non-food categories to help brands understand how demand is building for a brand or category over time. Numerator is uniquely able to look across consumer buying behavior to provide omnichannel insights, and harder to track, non-traditional channels like ecommerce. The Numerator view seamlessly integrates data for each panelist across channels and includes all brick & mortar and online.

The analysis allows brands to: 

  • Evaluate the cumulative household penetration of a brand for the analysis period relative to a control period (in this case, 2020 relative to 2019)
  • Understand 2020 performance relative to year ago to better anticipate penetration trajectory for the rest of the year, specifically the extent to which brands are ahead or behind the baseline
  • Deconstruct drivers to better understand buy rate in terms of purchase frequency and spend per trip, the relative importance of new versus existing customers and more

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