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Five Predictions for Amazon’s “Prime Big Deal Days”

Although this year’s event will sport a new name—“Prime Big Deal Days,” in comparison to last year’s “Prime Early Access Sale”—we expect many of the sale attributes to remain the same. Here are five predictions for Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days based on what we’ve seen from shoppers at past Amazon sales.

Big Deals, Smaller Sale

Prediction #1: Prime Big Deal Days will likely be smaller than Prime Day.

If Amazon’s second sale of the year performs similarly to last year’s, Prime Big Deal Days will likely attract fewer shoppers and rake in fewer dollars than 2023’s blockbuster July Prime Day. Last year, the Prime Early Access Sale saw a 6 point drop in household participation compared to Prime Day 2022 (28% of US households vs. 34%), with overall sales volume and spending down as well. Early Access shoppers placed fewer, smaller orders and purchased lower-priced items than shoppers of Amazon’s summer sale, as outlined in our Prime Early Access Recap report.

amazon sale metrics

Trading Tech for Toys

Prediction #2: Toy sales are likely to see a boost during Prime Big Deal Days while electronics decline.

Last year, toys were the only category with increased shopper penetration during the Early Access Sale versus Prime Day 2022—16% of sale participants bought toys during the October sale compared to 14% in July. Five of the top ten brands in the Prime Early Access Sale were toys and games, with Vtech, Melissa & Doug, Just Play and LeapFrog leading the pack. Barbie came in as the #10 brand during the 2022 Early Access Sale and stands to rise in the ranks if this summer’s Barbie movie hype sustains through October.

Unlike other major categories, interest in electronics during Amazon sales has decreased over the past five years. While 42% of Prime Day 2019 shoppers purchased electronics, only 29% did so on Prime Day 2023. This decline is driven by fewer shoppers purchasing streaming media players and smart home devices, specifically Amazon’s Fire TV Stick and Echo smart speakers. 10% of Prime Day shoppers bought Fire TV Sticks during the 2019 sale and 8% bought Echo speakers—those numbers dropped to 2% and 1% during Prime Day 2023, indicating Amazon’s electronic devices may have reached their saturation point.

top sectors amazon prime sales

New Sale, Old Inventory

Prediction #3: Manufacturers may use Prime Big Deal Days to clear inventory.

It’s likely manufacturers will use Amazon’s October sale to clear out old inventory ahead of the holiday shopping season. Last year, the Early Access Sale saw steep promotions on 2nd Generation Apple Airpods and 3rd Generation Echo Dots, with both among the top ten items sold overall, despite having newer models on the market. The popularity of these items in the Early Access Sale suggests compelling discounts on aging inventory. While this may have been a byproduct of 2022’s industry-wide inventory surplus, manufacturers could still see Prime Big Deal Days as an opportunity to offload old inventory before pushing new products on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

The Echo Dot 3rd Generation was a best-seller during the Prime Early Access Sale, while the 4th Generation version made the list during Prime Day three months earlier.
Numerator’s Prime Early Access 2022 Recap Report

Retailer Rivalry

Prediction #4: Competing sales will impact Prime Big Deal Days shopper participation.

Major retailers like Walmart and Target regularly host their own sales events to compete with Amazon. Both retailers have announced sales on or around Prime Big Deal Days this fall, with “Target Circle Week” set to take place October 1-7 and “Walmart Deals – Holiday Kickoff” October 9-12. These rival sales are following a similar format to last year. Last October, Target Deal Days took place the week before Amazon’s Early Access Sale, while Walmart’s Rollbacks and More sale kicked off a day before Early Access and extended a day later.

Amazon’s Early Access Sale resulted in a larger sales boost for the retailer’s bottom line compared to Walmart and Target’s sales. However, shoppers of Target Deal Days and Walmart Rollbacks and More boasted higher satisfaction with the deals offered in their respective sales.

satisfaction with amazon prime sales

Online Off the Charts

Prediction #5: Prime Big Deal Days will bring a significant boost to overall eCommerce sales.

In spite of potential sector shifting or participation declines compared to Prime Day, we still expect Prime Big Deal Days to bring a massive spike to online shopping come October. Daily online sales doubled during last year’s Prime Early Access Sale, placing both days of the event in the top ten online shopping days of the past two years. The first day of Amazon’s past events also tends to outperform the second day, so we expect to see the same come October 10th. Below are the top ten days of online shopping in the past two years, ranked by sales vs. the daily online average.

top days of online sales

Coming Soon: Prime Big Deal Days Live Tracker

Numerator plans to provide live tracking of Prime Big Deal Days on October 10 & 11, with early read omnipanel data and verified shopper surveys updated throughout the two-day event. While you wait for this year’s sale to kick off, check out our event recap reports for past Prime Days (2022 & 2023) and the Prime Early Access Sale. Talk to your Numerator representative or get in touch with our team for additional customized insights.

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