Numerator’s fourth annual Emerging Brands Summit was held on Wednesday, August 27, 2025. The virtual thought leadership event focused on how emerging brands are unlocking the power of deep behavioral data to drive sustainable growth based on today’s consumers’ beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes.
Insights From Our Clients & Presenters:
Dusan Vujovic (Head of North America) of Tony’s Chocolonely shared his perspective on the importance of putting the consumer first—understanding shopper needs to fuel the right innovation and expand into new channels. He outlined Tony’s growth journey, beginning with success among premium chocolate buyers in natural channels, where the brand built strong awareness and household penetration. By proving its resonance with this core group, Tony’s was able to strategically and selectively expand into mass retailers, carefully timing the move to maximize scale without compromising its premium positioning or brand values. Innovation then followed this expansion, ensuring the brand continued to connect with shoppers in new environments. Looking ahead, Tony’s plans to build on this strategy by entering the club channel, staying true to its consumer-first approach while broadening its impact.
Without Numerator, it would have taken us twice as long to grow our household penetration to where it is today. We’ve been able to go from having one top to top per year with Whole Foods to having 2-3 top to tops per year with all of our strategic retail accounts – Tony’s Chocolonely
Stratton Shook (Senior Brand Manager) of King Arthur Baking Company shared how they translated pandemic-era growth into a sustainable strategy rooted in continually revisiting consumer insights. With Numerator data, King Arthur identified the gluten-free shopper as a key growth driver and uncovered how shelf placement and product organization shape purchase decisions—finding that most shoppers prefer gluten-free items integrated within the baking aisle rather than in a separate section. By continuously returning to prior findings and layering in new research, the team built a deeper understanding of shopper needs, balancing safety concerns with convenience while helping retailers optimize assortment, signage, and shelf strategy. This longitudinal approach has strengthened loyalty among heavy gluten-free bakers, reinforced King Arthur’s position as the category leader, and enabled stronger retailer partnerships. Stratton emphasized that brands must treat research as an ongoing ingredient—regularly updating, reassessing, and road mapping insights to inform innovation and key strategic decisions.
To dig deeper, we utilized Numerator’s data and our consulting team to uncover several different avenues to explore. One in particular, Gluten-Free Baking, stood out as a project that not only could help our consumers, but also the retailers we work with. We turned to Numerator’s data and uncovered a fascinating opportunity for our gluten-free baker. – King Arthur Baking Co.
Drew Rzezutko (Senior Vice President of Sales) and Mary Keller (Category Manager) of Nature Nate’s Honey Co. shared how they transformed into a category-leading brand through intentional, premium positioning and continual use of consumer insights. With sustained household penetration growth—outpacing condiments and center-store staples—Honey has shifted away from private label, reduced lapse rates, and increased loyalty among retained buyers. In driving this shift, Nature Nate’s team has leaned on Numerator insights to identify key growth sources, from younger and health-conscious households seeking raw and organic options, to new occasions such as hot honey, beauty, and medical uses. By continually revisiting past learnings and layering in new research, Nature Nate’s will build innovation by introducing honey to other categories as a key sweetener, extending its role as a “hero” ingredient. Looking ahead, the brand will continue leveraging data to roadmap opportunities, justify shelf growth, and guide cross-category expansion, proving that even a commodity can become a powerful platform for growth.
We are seeing the share of private label decline, and consumers coming into branded honey for the first time, this insight is key for our retail conversations, as retained shoppers interacting with the branded honeys are also increasing their spend on the category. – Nature Nate’s Honey Co.
Kurt McCracken (Vice President, Business Planning & Category Development) introduced how Simmons Pet Food is responding to the rise of direct-to-consumer pet food brands by launching Your Pet’s Kitchen, a premium yet approachable wet dog food rooted in consumer insights. The team built the brand on a foundation of research to uncover shopper needs, barriers, and opportunities—ensuring the strategy was grounded in behavioral data from the start. By testing and refining concepts with its target audience, Simmons Pet Food could validate positioning, messaging, and product features that directly address pet parents’ priorities. With this insight-led approach, Your Pet’s Kitchen balances differentiation with accessibility—delivering the premium cues consumers want while remaining convenient and affordable—demonstrating how brands can use data to both inspire innovation and drive long-term loyalty.
Numerator has been a great partner for us. All of our brand and strategy work needs to start with the shopper and consumer, and this partnership has been very beneficial. We’ve moved much of our primary research over to Numerator, partly because of Verified Voices, which allows us to confirm what shoppers actually purchased rather than relying solely on what they say. – Simmons Pet Food
Numerator’s Dr. Leo Feler (Chief Economist) closed out the summit by offering insight into the state of US consumers, who are still grappling with some of the highest inflation in decades—food prices remain 28% higher than pre-pandemic levels. While inflation briefly eased, signs of reacceleration are emerging and reshaping shopping behavior. Shoppers are no longer just adjusting their baskets within a retailer but switching retailers altogether to find better value, altering how and where brands can reach them. Concerns like FDA workforce reductions raise awareness of health, but they rarely drive lasting behavior change—consumers may start the year with healthier intentions, yet their baskets typically revert by year’s end. Consumers also have different definitions of health, and emerging brands must cater to their target audience’s definition. At the same time, online grocery continues to grow, with AI shopping tools beginning to influence discovery, though still in early stages. This shift favors Enterprise and Private Label brands, leaving Emerging Brands struggling for visibility without the benefit of in-store shelves. In this online-first environment, digital discovery and placement become critical.
Functional mushroom coffee illustrates how emerging categories can succeed: what began as niche trials in-store has expanded significantly online. Competing less with traditional coffee and more with functional beverages, the category is attracting diverse audiences across age, income, and race. Early experiments have evolved into mainstream adoption, signaling durable relevance and long-term growth potential.
Numerator remains committed to helping emerging brands achieve sustainable and long-term growth. If you’d like to dig deeper into anything we covered at Emerging Brands Summit, reach out to your Numerator representative or get in touch today to discuss how we can help tell your brand’s story from a consumer lens. And to continue your journey, our Emerging Brands Learning Hub offers additional insights and use cases tailored to the unique challenges emerging brands face.
