Manufacturers, retailers, and investors place their bets on the spaces deemed dynamic and future-ready by thought leaders, such as research firms and consultancies. “Brands to watch” lists published by industry experts are used to signal which emerging brands are gaining significance, yet many of the frameworks used to develop these lists rely on Point of Sale (POS) data, which remains at the mercy of participating retailers and lacks a complete view of consumer purchasing across the total market.
An example of an analysis based on incomplete data is Bain’s annual Insurgent Brands, which identifies innovative consumer product companies that outperform and often disrupt their categories each year. Replicating Bain’s Insurgent Brand 2025 criteria using Numerator’s omnichannel data uncovered over 50 insurgents entirely missed by POS data and flagged another 10 Insurgent Brands newcomers in 2025 that would have been highlighted in 2024. The initial analysis overlooked these insurgent brands because it drew from traditionally tracked data rather than a dataset reflecting consumer spending behavior across the entire market.
Below are a few of the outcomes we uncovered when comparing the list generated using Numerator data versus the original:
Untracked Channel Blind Spots
Emerging brands increasingly gain early traction outside of POS-tracked retail. K-Beauty brand COSRX had one of the Top 10 best-selling items on Prime Day 2024, yet the brand has been overlooked by the traditional methodology. Tracked channel focus risks missing the insurgents in their growth phase.
Overlooking Key Consumer Cohorts
A POS-centric approach can be blind to brands that are winning with new consumer segments. PanOxyl, Kitsch and Hero Cosmetics have proven hugely popular with Gen Z or Gen Alpha, yet were surfaced by traditional tracking a year too late or not at all. Losing sight of these groups risks missing your clients’ big bets.
Missing Emerging Trends
By relying on lagging data, one can fail to spot nuanced category trends powered by insurgent brands, such as ever-evolving Better-For-You snack niches, from simple ingredients (Gimme Seaweed, That’s it. bars) to wholesome takes on indulgent foods (LesserEvil popcorn, UNREAL chocolate snacks). Furthermore, consumer-centered metrics unavailable in POS, such as Repeat Rate, can help tell apart fads from trends here to stay.
Lagging Timeline & Reactive Picks
The traditional five-year insurgent tracking window is too slow for today’s pace of change. The spicy condiment boom, propelled by brands like Kinders or Melinda’s (the fastest growing brand of 2024), gets overlooked by the conservative methodology.
The Insurgents Themselves Choose the Modern Approach
Brands on Bain’s own 2025 list (poppi, DUDE Wipes, Every Man Jack, Chomps and many more) rely on Numerator’s omnichannel, single-source, consumer-centric data to keep growing and to prove their case to retailers and investors. Bain recognizes that insurgent brands “continue to showcase the power of consumer-centric value propositions” and “strong brand engagement,” but without Verified Voices from real brand buyers and comprehensive omnichannel tracking, those conclusions lack critical nuance and foresight.
If you’re looking to spot insurgents earlier, separate fads from future, and base your investment decisions on rich consumer-centric evidence, contact us to learn how Numerator data can support your strategy.
