Affordability Pressures Mount for Low-Income Consumers Following Three Consecutive Months of Inflation Growth
CHICAGO, July 13, 2026 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, released its June 2026 Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI), an advance read on consumer inflation based on verified household purchases. The CGPI measures the prices consumers actually pay for everyday goods while reflecting changes in purchasing behavior, such as brand and retailer switching, in real-time. The index also includes breakouts by income level, generation, and U.S. census region, showing how inflation experienced varies across different consumer groups. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases increased 0.70% in June following a 0.51% increase in May and a 0.44% increase in April. In June, prices for everyday goods are up 3.4% versus a year ago.
Additional key findings from Numerator’s June CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household purchases accelerated in June 2026, increasing by 0.70% after a 0.51% increase in May 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 3.4% as annual inflation edged up in June for the third consecutive month.
- Low income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 35.7% and 39.4%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 33.8% national average.
- Regionally, consumers in the South census region have continued to experience higher levels of inflation since 2018.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data cover approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
“Three straight months of accelerating consumer goods inflation have pushed price increases to their highest annual rate in nearly three years,” said Paul Stanley, Senior Economist, Numerator. “While lower gas prices provided some relief in June, the broader picture hasn’t changed: inflation continues to place the greatest strain on lower-income households, which have now seen everyday prices rise nearly 36% since 2018. With geopolitical tensions continuing to create uncertainty around future price pressures, that gap is unlikely to narrow.”
For a methodology description of the Numerator CGPI, or to download the data charts, visit numerator.com/inflation.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
METHODOLOGY
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index. Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The index is calculated from an average of approximately 7 million verified, item-level transactions each month provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Since the index uses receipt-level purchase data, Numerator’s CGPI reflects the actual prices consumers pay after promotions, coupons, and loyalty discounts are applied. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy in real-time.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends that can be viewed across demographic groups to explain how inflation is experienced across different segments of the population.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.
