Nearly One-Third of US Consumers Expected to Shop the Event; Toys & Barbie Likely to See Boosts, Electronics Likely to Show Declines

CHICAGO, October 2, 2023 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released its expectations for Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event on October 10-11th. For the second year in a row, Amazon is holding a major fall sales event to supplement their annual summer Prime Day, and if 2023 follows a similar pattern as last year, the event will bring a significant boost to eCommerce sales in general, with consumers seeing steep promotions on older inventory, and opting to purchase toys over technology.

2023 Prime Big Deal Days Expectations:

  1. Prime Big Deal Days will likely outperform the 2022 Early Access Sale but won’t top Prime Day in shoppers or dollars. In October 2022, Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale saw a 6-point drop in household participation compared to its July 2022 Prime Day event (28% of US households vs. 34%), with overall sales volume and spending down as well. Early Access shoppers placed fewer, smaller orders and purchased lower-priced items than shoppers of Amazon’s summer sale. These numbers spiked again with Prime Day 2023, with 37% of US households shopping the event, making it unlikely that Prime Big Deal Days can top a summer Prime Day.

Prime Day Participation
Source: Numerator Insights

Amazon Event % of US Households Participating
2019 Prime Day 25.2%
2020 Prime Day 28.9%
2021 Prime Day 29.6%
2022 Prime Day 34.1%
2022 Early Access Sale 28.4%
2023 Prime Day 37.3%


  1. Prime Big Deal Days will bring a significant boost to overall eCommerce sales, with the first day of the sale potentially surpassing Cyber Monday in online shopping. In spite of potential sector shifting or participation declines compared to Prime Day, expect Prime Big Deal Days to bring a massive spike to online shopping in October. Daily online sales doubled during last year’s Prime Early Access Sale, placing both days of the event among the top ten online shopping days of the past two years, with Day 1 ranking one place behind Cyber Monday 2022.

Top Online Shopping Days: 2022 & 2023
Source: Numerator TruView

Rank Day / Sales Event Online Sales vs. Annual Daily Avg.
1 2023 Prime Day (Day 1) 4.2X
2 2022 Prime Day (Day 1) 3.9X
3 2022 Black Friday 3.5X
4 2023 Prime Day (Day 2) 3.3X
5 2022 Prime Day (Day 2) 3.2X
6 2022 Cyber Monday 3.0X
7 2022 Prime Early Access Sale (Day 1) 2.2X
8 2022 Saturday after Thanksgiving 2.0X
9 2022 Prime Early Access Sale (Day 2) 2.0X
10 2022 Sunday after Thanksgiving 1.9X


  1. Competing retailer sales have the opportunity to pull share and shoppers from Amazon. Major retailers have announced rival sales to take place around Amazon’s fall event, including Target Circle Week and Walmart Deals – Holiday Kickoff. Last fall, the Early Access Sale resulted in a larger sales boost for Amazon’s bottom line compared to Walmart’s and Target’s sales, but shoppers of Walmart and Target events indicated higher satisfaction with the deals offered.

Retail Event Deal Satisfaction
How satisfied were you with the deals offered during [SALE]?
Source: Numerator Surveys

Sales Event Very or Extremely Satisfied
% of consumers reporting
Target Deal Days (Oct 2022) 76%
Walmart Rollbacks and More (Oct 2022) 72%
Prime Day (July 2023) 66%
Prime Day (July 2022) 64%
Prime Early Access Sale (Oct 2022) 61%


  1. Toys (including Barbie) will likely see a boost on Prime Big Deal Days, while Amazon electronics may have hit their saturation point. Last year, toys were the only category with increased shopper penetration during the Early Access Sale versus Prime Day 2022, and five of the top ten brands in the Early Access Sale were toys and games, with Vtech, Melissa & Doug, Just Play and LeapFrog leading the pack. Barbie came in as the #10 brand during the 2022 Early Access Sale and stands to rise in the ranks if this summer’s Barbie movie hype sustains through October.
    • Unlike other major categories, interest in electronics during Amazon sales has decreased over the past five years. While 42% of Prime Day 2019 shoppers purchased electronics, only 29% did so on Prime Day 2023. The decline is driven by fewer shoppers purchasing streaming media players and smart home devices, specifically Amazon’s Fire TV Stick and Echo smart speakers, indicating that Amazon’s electronic devices may have passed their peak.
  2. Manufacturers will likely use Prime Big Deal Days to clear inventory ahead of the holiday shopping season. Last year, the Early Access Sale saw steep promotions on 2nd Generation Apple Airpods and 3rd Generation Echo Dots, with both among the top ten items sold overall, despite having newer models on the market. The popularity of these items in the Early Access Sale suggests compelling discounts on aging inventory. This year, manufacturers may again use the fall Prime event to offload old inventory before pushing new products on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Numerator will provide live tracking of Prime Big Deal Days on October 10 & 11, with early read omnipanel data and verified shopper surveys updated throughout the two-day event.

About Numerator:

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research.  Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.


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