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The Numerator Early Read on Shopping Behavior Index to Monitor COVID-19 Impact

Numerator is now publishing a weekly Early Read, or “live” Shopping Behavior Index to provide needed visibility into consumer buying behavior shifts driven by the Coronavirus. 

The Numerator Early Read Shopping Behavior Index tracks U.S. consumer buying behavior versus year ago across 13 retail channels for the most recent two weeks. Just as voting polls provide indicators well before the poll closes, Early Read data will provide shopping behavior patterns and indicators on a more live or real-time basis.

Notable Changes For Weeks 11 & 12:
This week, we are adding ranges to represent channels in which we are seeing early indications of more significant YoY changes.  For channels that look to be experiencing very high growth YoY, we indicate that growth with >140. For channels with early indications of YoY softness, we indicate the performance with <90. 

We are also introducing Online data to the Early Read Index. Please review the guide below for how to think about Early Read data in particular for Online.


By combining Early Read “live” data with the more stable Shopping Behavior Index each week, we will provide you with the fastest, most complete understanding of consumer behavior so you can make more informed real-time decisions about your business during the outbreak.

Early read indicates consumer spending still high with Food and Liquor picking up steam as consumers prepare to hunker down in weeks 11 & 12 

• As more states close schools and issue stay at home orders, we see an expected increase in YoY spending with increases in Trips and Buy Rate driving growth 
• Consumer spending decelerates in Beauty, Gas & C-Store, and Health as consumers stay close to home and non-essential businesses begin closing 
• Early indications suggest more households shopping Online


coronavirus consumer behavior

Update: The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behavior

With consumers still flooding stores and retailers scrambling to restock, product scarcity is top of mind for many shoppers who are leaning more toward purchasing these items online.

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NUM-WR-2020 Coronavirus Updates