Emerging brands have captured consumers’ attention. Now, the opportunity is to turn that attention into lasting habits.
Numerator data shows that 95% of U.S. households have purchased an emerging brand across food, beverage, home, pet, baby, health, and beauty. But while trial is nearly universal, repeat has room to grow: just 34% of emerging brand buyers made a repeat purchase. That gap represents a significant opportunity for brands that can convert discovery into routine.
At the same time, broader shifts in consumer behavior are creating favorable conditions for emerging brands. Price-conscious shoppers are reconsidering what makes a product “worth it,” ingredient and label scrutiny is rising, and consumers are increasingly placing trust in what they can verify through product experiences, labels, reviews, and their own communities.
At Numerator’s fifth annual Emerging Brands Summit, Nick Keswani, SVP of Emerging Brands at Numerator, shared the path brands need to take to build on this momentum: deliver differentiated value and a consistently great product experience, be easy to find where shoppers buy every day, and earn the trust that brings them back.
What’s driving emerging brand growth?
Emerging brand growth is increasingly being fueled by existing buyers purchasing more frequently, rather than household penetration alone.
Emerging brand sales increased by over $6 billion compared to the prior year, while the number of households buying grew by nearly 130,000 in the latest 12 months ending June 30, 2026. Consumers are also spending more per trip and shopping more often, with trip frequency up 11%.
But there’s still an opportunity for emerging brands to move further from trial into routine. A recent Numerator survey showed that 84% of emerging brand trial was incremental, with the majority of consumers saying they were looking to try something new in addition to their usual products or a product they don’t typically buy in the first place. In other words, emerging brands are getting into the cart, but they are not yet consistently replacing established choices or becoming the product shoppers reach for by default.
That makes existing buyers a critical source of future growth. Heavy emerging brand buyers, defined by the top 25% of total emerging brand spend, lead medium and light buyers on buy rate, purchase frequency, and spend per trip, spending nearly $800 annually on emerging brands. Every heavy buyer started as a lighter buyer, highlighting the opportunity to deepen relationships with consumers who have already given emerging brands a try.
Who is the emerging brand shopper?
The demographic stereotype of the emerging brand shopper is young, urban, Gen Z, and living in a small household, although purchase-verified consumer data tells a different story.
Heavy emerging brand buyers are more likely to be Millennials or Gen X, have higher incomes, live in suburban areas, and belong to households of three to six people. They’re families and pantry-stockers with purchasing power and broad household needs. These households are also driving outsized online growth, extending beyond Amazon to Costco.com, Walmart.com, Target.com, and platforms like Instacart and DoorDash.
However, Millennials and Gen X are not the only emerging brand buyers, and each generation can help drive growth in a different way. Gen Z is most likely to help fuel discovery and awareness, while Millennials are particularly important to trial, repeat, and trip growth. Gen X can extend that momentum, while Boomers remain more likely to lean toward familiar legacy brands and nostalgia.
Building routines with families today sets brands for longer-term benefits. The products parents repeatedly bring into the household now create the familiarity—and future nostalgia—that turns emerging brands into tomorrow’s household names.
Where are consumers buying emerging brands?
Emerging brands may be associated with natural, specialty, and discovery-oriented retailers, but growth is increasingly coming from some of the country’s largest mass and online retailers.
Walmart, Amazon and Costco have all expanded their share of emerging brand trips compared to 2023. Walmart alone added 94 million emerging brand trips in the latest year. Meanwhile, Whole Foods’ share of emerging brands declined from 3.4% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2026.
This shift matters because although discovery can happen almost anywhere, routine is easier to establish when a product is available where consumers already conduct their everyday shopping.
Across the major retailers analyzed by Numerator, emerging brands account for at least 2 in 5 dollars spent in retail, demonstrating that scale is no longer a prerequisite for earning meaningful space with major retailers. For emerging brands, distribution strategy should focus on where shoppers build habits, not just where they discover new products.
What builds lasting trust in emerging brands?
Legacy isn’t a requirement for consumer trust. In a Numerator Verified Voices survey of more than 1,000 emerging brand consumers, nearly 9 in 10 consumers say they trust emerging brands-outpacing national consumer brands.
Trust is built on delivering product quality and keeping it consistent. Consumers want their product experience to be in line with expectations. In Numerator research, this tenet of trust outpaces that of good value, high-quality ingredients, and even transparent messaging.
One emerging brand, Once Upon a Farm, provides an example of how those attributes can translate into loyalty. Among verified buyers who had lapsed from Gerber, 44% cited wanting more organic or natural ingredients as a reason for switching, while 37% cited greater confidence in Once Upon a Farm’s product quality. Approximately 85% agreed that Once Upon a Farm had earned their household’s trust by consistently delivering on its promises and indicated a high likelihood of buying the brand again.
The takeaway is straightforward: differentiation can earn the first purchase, but consistently delivering on that differentiation helps earn the next one.
Does acquisition put emerging brand trust at risk?
For founders and investors, acquisition can raise another question: does selling to a larger company put the trust an emerging brand has built at risk?
Numerator examined shopper behavior around Siete and Poppi following their acquisitions. In both cases, sales continued to grow after acquisition, with new shoppers accounting for more than 70% of sales growth. Retained shoppers also increased their spending.
Many consumers weren’t aware of the ownership change in the first place, and when it was shared, fewer than 2% said they would switch or stop buying. Most said they would continue buying, either as usual or while watching for changes.
The findings suggest that shoppers may care less about who owns an emerging brand than whether it preserves the ingredients, taste, and quality they trust.
How are emerging brand leaders turning insights into growth?
Throughout the Emerging Brands Summit, leaders shared how they’re using high-quality, verified consumer data to find new occasions, expand retail reach, and turn trial into lasting loyalty:
- GOODLES: CEO & Co-Founder Jen Zeszut shared how GOODLES is bringing consumers “back to mac” through better nutrition and a fresh brand voice. With 10 million households purchasing GOODLES in the past year, the brand is recruiting new buyers—including households without kids—while increasing purchase frequency among existing mac and cheese shoppers. Innovation across nutrient-packed pasta, deluxe offerings, and cups is also helping create new usage occasions and expand the category.
- Death Wish Coffee: Marketing Director Matt Del Mastro shared how consumer research helped Death Wish sharpen its strategy in a crowded coffee category. Numerator’s brand health research showed consumers strongly associate the brand with exceptional strength, while its Fair Trade and Organic credentials were less recognized. Those insights helped Death Wish prioritize the benefits shoppers value most, strengthen its sustainability story, and better understand what drives loyalty and repeat purchase.
- Forward Consumer Partners: Partner Imran Manji shared how Forward combines syndicated retail data with household-level insights to make more confident investment decisions. During its 2025 acquisition of a majority stake in Justin’s, Numerator’s consumer data showed that declining almond butter and growing peanut butter were largely complementary rather than cannibalistic, with 84% of almond butter buyers also purchasing peanut butter. The findings strengthened Forward’s understanding of Justin’s shoppers and long-term growth potential.
- Recess: SVP of Strategic Insights T.J. Moore shared how Recess used household penetration as a north star for scaling its position in the emerging “Modern Unwind” beverage space. In partnering with Numerator, Recess identified recruitment opportunities from adjacent beverage occasions, connected penetration targets to revenue goals, and measured the incrementality of limited-time offerings to align innovation, media, messaging, and distribution around sustainable growth.
Together, these stories reinforce a common theme: driving emerging brand growth is about understanding what brings shoppers in, what creates incremental demand, and what gives consumers a reason to come back.
Build your emerging brand growth strategy with Numerator
Emerging brands have proven they can win attention and drive trial. The next phase is more disciplined: delivering a consistent experience that earns the second purchase and turns that purchase into habit.
Numerator can help. We partner with emerging brands to help them understand who buys them, where they shop, why they choose one product over another, and what turns trial into repeat. With verified purchase behavior, consumer surveys, loyalty analysis, and retailer insights, brands can identify the shoppers and strategies most likely to fuel their next stage of growth.
Connect with your Numerator representative or reach out to our team to learn more.
