The Rundown
- SNAP recipients are entering the new year with heightened uncertainty, driven by inflation and day-to-day financial strain impacted by SNAP delays.
- The government shutdown changed purchasing behaviors: SNAP recipients cut back on groceries, out-of-home activities, and nonessential items.
- Cost-saving tactics are increasing, including buying less overall, trading down to lower-priced brands, bulk buying, and seeking promotions.
- Digital engagement (online shopping, Click & Collect, Buy Now, Pay Later) is rising among SNAP households but remains fragile as it dropped sharply during the shutdown.
- Health goals are slipping as budgets tighten: fewer are watching what they eat, dieting when needed, or paying attention to food and beverage labels.
- SNAP recipients and their families need support not just savings. Brands can maintain stable pricing and demonstrate value to help consumers maximize their spending. To stay current with their SNAP shoppers, brands should continue to track this audience.
For many Americans, 2025 has been a turbulent year: tariffs, rising prices and a government shutdown. The months ahead feel especially uncertain for households relying on SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits, as the program became a major point of leverage during the recent shutdown. In fact, 1 in 2 SNAP recipients are worried about rising prices, 31% about financial security and personal debt, and 26% about economic uncertainty/recession. For brands and retailers, understanding how SNAP recipients are responding to these pressures is essential in order to provide support. Numerator tracks consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior among SNAP recipients and this analysis examines how their behaviors changed from July to November, including during the government shutdown.
When SNAP recipient’s budgets are on hold, uncertainty rises.
Numerator research found uncertainty to be the defining feeling describing the year to come, followed by anxious and worried. Pessimism has intensified in the last few months with 19% of SNAP recipients in November describing their future as uncertain, up eight percentage points from July. Uncertainty now supersedes worried (15%), anxious (9%) or hopeful (9%).
In our qualitative interviews, SNAP recipients explained the many financial variables that drive their uncertainty about the future. Alicia* a 50-year-old Tennessean shares, “I am not optimistic about next year…because debt is up, inflation is up, and people are suffering. A lot of people are broke and struggling and can barely put food on the table.” Those sentiments are consistent with Consumer Sentiment trackers showing a decline in consumer confidence over the course of 2025. Since July, concerns among SNAP recipients have shifted away from global issues like conflicts and climate change toward personal financial worries, underscoring a focus on immediate day-to-day survival.
Dave, a 50 year-old living in Florida, describes his outlook for the year: “Just like SNAP was shut off, personal gain or income could be shut off just as eas[ily] because somebody else deems so…That’s probably the biggest outlook—fear—that I’m sure many people in America have.” Echoing this sentiment is a 47 year-old self-employed entrepreneur from Hawaii sharing how her finances are “getting tight, [and] the economy is not getting better. I am very concerned about the future, about everyone’s future”.
View our qualitative interviews with purchase-verified SNAP recipients in-depth here.
SNAP consumers are increasingly worried about rising costs.
The cost of groceries saw an uptick since July (+6 percentage points), along with the cost of utilities (+3pp), healthcare (+3pp), and other goods/services (+3pp), which make up the top economic concerns among SNAP recipients. A 40-year old Colorado mom describes how “things… are outrageous. The cost of groceries right now are pretty high and I hope to see that those [prices] go down [in the year to come]”.
SNAP recipients continue to adapt by finding creative ways to stretch their budgets when allotments are delayed. These include: buying less in general (44%), buying lower priced brands (43%), shopping at lower priced retailers (36%), buying more items on promotion (30%), stockpiling/buying in bulk (37%), and buying more private label brands (24%). While most saving tactics saw an increase from July to November, buying more private label brands decreased. This shift counters what many manufacturers and retailers would expect, and indicates that SNAP recipients are seeking the absolute lowest price over perceived value, which could mean reaching for a name brand over private label.
Several interviewees expressed similar cost-saving tactics such as shopping around to find the best deal, shopping clearance items, removing high-cost items such as meat and eggs from their baskets, and relying more on staples to make meals and their benefits go further. Despite these efforts, one recipient reveals how she feels “food insecurity will be a new norm for us.” While most have not yet had to rely on food pantries, it is a resource they would consider using if needed.
Comfort in spending on groceries and out of home activities took a notable decline during the SNAP shutdown.
During this time period, consumers became less comfortable spending money across key categories such as groceries, travel and entertainment (-10pp, -7pp and -8pp, respectively). Numerator purchasing data shows that discretionary and grocery departments saw outsized reductions in buy rate during the government shutdown, including categories such as hardware supplies, fast-food desserts, beverages, frozen foods, meat, and dairy. These trends are similar to prior findings during the pullback of SNAP emergency allotments. Interviewees noted that some of the first items they eliminate from their baskets when SNAP benefits run out are nonessential foods such as snacks.
Traffic fell across nearly all major retailers, with C-stores hit hardest as SNAP recipients reduced out-of-home activity, often staying home during the shutdown. Fewer consumers dined out (-7pts) or attended movies/concerts (-6pts), which reflects increasingly cautious spending behavior and tighter budgets.
SNAP shoppers are digital shoppers but engagement is fragile.
SNAP recipients are increasingly embracing online shopping and digital payment options. From July to November, there was an increase in preference for online shopping (21% to 27%), use of “Click and Collect” services (26% to 30%), and use of “Buy Now, Pay Later” usage (20% to 23%).
Purchasing data verifies these claims with SNAP households’ eCommerce 12 month buy rate jumping +17% year over year, signaling that digital shopping and flexible payment options are becoming key channels for this group.
However, this progress faltered during the shutdown, not because preference declined but because spending power did. Online spending among SNAP households dropped significantly from +4.7% in the latest 4 weeks ending 10/12/2025 compared to the prior period to -9.6% in the four weeks after ending 11/09/2025, reversing earlier gains that had outpaced total U.S. trends. The dip contrasts with the steadier trend among total U.S. shoppers, showing SNAP recipients’ higher sensitivity to economic and political instability due to delays.
SNAP delays rippled into health & wellness among recipients.
Sentiment data shows SNAP recipients shifted away from prioritizing their health during the shutdown and SNAP delays, creating an opportunity for brands to help these consumers maintain healthy habits during financial strain. Numerator found that, in November, SNAP recipients were less likely to watch what they eat or diet when needed (-6pp) and less likely to get their annual checkup or physical (-5pp) compared to July. SNAP recipients also paid less attention to food or beverage labels (+4pp), making brand transparency and everyday low prices more critical than ever.
What brand and retailer leaders can do to help SNAP consumers.
Brands and retailers have an opportunity to help SNAP recipients by offering steady prices and real value, helping them feel more supported when budgets are tight. Prioritizing stability, accessibility, and affordability across both online and offline touchpoints is essential. Strengthening digital experiences through seamless delivery, clear value messaging, and flexible payment options, and maintaining trusted, everyday low prices will help sustain engagement even as economic uncertainty or disruptions arise.
While the government shutdown is now over, the uncertainty among SNAP recipients is heavy. Based on findings from another survey Numerator conducted among SNAP recipients whose allotments were impacted by the government shutdown, many SNAP households feel on edge. Three in four recipients are concerned about future delays or pauses in SNAP benefits, and 42% are not sure or not confident their household will continue to qualify for SNAP benefits over the next six months. These findings remind brand and retail leaders to continue monitoring the future of government welfare programs and the purchasing behavior of recipients so they can better understand and adjust to upcoming changes especially in light of changes driven by the Trump administrations, “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act”.
Looking for the latest thinking on SNAP? Explore the SNAP hub.
*The names of interviewers have been changed for their anonymity.
