Numerator’s second annual General Merchandise Summit: Clarity in a Complex Market was held on Wednesday, September 10, 2025. The virtual thought leadership event focused on how general merchandise brands and industry leaders are utilizing deep behavioral data from highly engaged consumers to gain unparalleled insight into their beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes—and drive growth in a rapidly changing market.
Insights From Our Clients & Presenters:
Missy Herrel (Senior Director, Brand Analytics & Insights Management) of Newell Brands emphasized the role of data in driving smarter decisions—using shopper insights to cut through channel ambiguity and uncover blind spots across categories. She described Newell’s journey from siloed views of eCommerce and brick-and-mortar to building a unified, portfolio-wide perspective with Numerator. By first proving the value of a consumer-first lens in specialty retail and niche brands, Newell could secure alignment and integrate panel data into broader business reviews, strengthening conversations with key retail partners. With this foundation, the company expanded its use cases, introducing custom hierarchies and more sophisticated diagnostics that unlocked immense value across 60+ categories. Looking ahead, Newell plans to deepen the partnership through thought leadership with regular presentations on relevant topics, bespoke trainings to empower users to be self-sufficient, and tailored analytics built to Newell’s specifications—ensuring teams remain empowered while continuing to bring CPG-style rigor to the GM space.
David Stoll (Director of Shopper Insights) at Conair highlighted the brand’s opportunity to strengthen its leadership in the Hair Appliance category by converting competitive shoppers who already consider Conair. He outlined the brand’s path forward, beginning with insights from Numerator’s panel and Verified Voices surveys, which revealed that nearly one-third of buyers think about Conair but ultimately purchase another brand. By addressing barriers such as value perception, product durability, and lack of promotions, Conair has the potential to unlock millions in incremental sales while reinforcing loyalty among existing users. To support this growth, the brand will also leverage a brand health tracker to better understand consumer perceptions and guide future actions. In-store influence emerged as another critical driver, with many shoppers purchasing without prior intent—underscoring the importance of impulse triggers and engagement at the shelf. Looking ahead, Conair plans to refine its targeting strategy by focusing on key competitor shoppers and emerging consumer segments, while modernizing product features and tailoring marketing to better meet their needs.
Numerator’s Dr. Leo Feler (Chief Economist) outlined the major economic forces shaping U.S. consumers today, from persistent inflation and rising tariffs to shifting demographics and a cooling labor market. Prices for household furnishings have climbed 19% since before the pandemic, with inflation briefly dipping negative in 2024 before reaccelerating. Essentials like motor vehicle insurance and electricity have seen the steepest increases but rising personal incomes—up 38% since 2020—have helped offset some of the strain. Still, consumers continue to prioritize necessities, leaving discretionary categories such as apparel, toys, and TVs more vulnerable to cutbacks and tariffs.
Tariffs, weakening immigration, and a softer labor market all present headwinds for general merchandise demand. Tariffs have surged to their highest levels since the 1930s, and while companies have absorbed much of the cost so far, these pressures are expected to filter down to consumers over time. With $3.3T in annual imports, a 20% tariff could add as much as $5,000 per household once frontloaded inventories run out and effective rates rise. At the same time, consumer sentiment is increasingly shaped by concerns over both higher prices and job security. Many say it would be difficult to find comparable work if they lost their current job, as the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%. This uncertainty is prompting consumers to delay major purchases, electronics, renovations and gifts while continuing to prioritize essentials and shift spending toward the club channel for better value or online where they can research prior to making a purchase. Meanwhile, immigration—which was net positive in 2024—is expected to decline in 2025, slowing population growth and creating long-term headwinds for general merchandise demand.
Yet demographic and financial tailwinds are also emerging. More than 15M Americans are aging into their prime home-buying and family-starting years, and lower interest rates should help unlock housing activity and boost related spending. Higher-income households also continue to sustain general merchandise sales even as lower-income households pull back. The result is a more polarized but still resilient consumer landscape—one where brands that deliver affordability and relevance are best positioned to win.
Numerator remains committed to helping general merchandise brands achieve sustainable and long-term growth. If you’d like to dig deeper into anything we covered at the General Merchandise Summit, reach out to your Numerator representative or get in touch today to discuss how we can help provide clarity in a complex market.
