As the global cocoa shortage continues to drive up chocolate prices, shoppers are becoming more aware—and more reactive. Numerator’s Verified Voices survey of over 500 verified buyers of chocolate and cocoa products reveals how price sensitivity, substitution behaviors, and shifting perceptions are reshaping the confectionery aisle.
Awareness of the Cocoa Shortage Is Growing
More than half (57%) of shoppers are now aware of the cocoa shortage, representing an 11% increase since March. While seven in ten shoppers have not yet experienced product shortages, those who have are more likely to shop at another store, switch brands, or even purchase chocolate alternatives to satisfy their cravings.
With chocolate already perceived as expensive, rising awareness of the cocoa shortage is fueling expectations for transparency. In fact, 75% of shoppers say it’s important for brands to communicate the reasons behind price increases clearly.
Shoppers Feel the Pinch of Higher Prices
Two in three shoppers have noticed price increases, with nearly half (45%) cutting back on chocolate purchases as a result. Shoppers also have a clear price ceiling: 34% would accept paying up to $0.99 more, 30% would tolerate paying $1.00–$1.99 more, and 18% would stretch to paying $2.00–$2.99. Once costs exceed their ceiling, shoppers would consider switching brands or purchasing chocolate alternatives.
If prices increase, shoppers will be much more likely to purchase chocolate products when they are on promotion or discount, with 86% of shoppers being more likely to purchase chocolate on promotion or discount due to current price increases.
Substitutions on the Rise
When budgets tighten, shoppers become more open to stretching beyond traditional chocolate. Many say they would try cookies, pastries, or even white chocolate if these options are more affordable—choices driven primarily by price rather than quality, as 79% report no change in chocolate’s taste or quality. Still, 28.6% of shoppers aged 55+ said they would not try any of these alternatives—nearly double the rate of younger shoppers—while 61.5% of low-income shoppers (<$40k) said they would try cookies, significantly more than middle-income shoppers ($40k–$125k), revealing how different households balance indulgence with affordability. If chocolate prices rise further, the top actions shoppers consider include reducing overall consumption, seeking more promotions and discounts, and switching to less expensive brands. Interestingly, 21% of urban shoppers (165 index vs. overall) and 19% of low-income shoppers (<$40k; 150 index vs. overall) say they would turn to homemade chocolate recipes as an alternative.
This behavior highlights a critical challenge for brands seeking to maintain loyalty in a category where affordability, rather than taste, drives purchasing decisions.
Premium vs. Non-Premium: A Shifting Balance
Price pressure is pushing shoppers toward less expensive chocolate tiers. If costs rise further, 57% of shoppers say they are more likely to purchase non-premium chocolate over premium brands.
Those who continue buying premium often cite taste, quality ingredients, and indulgence as their main motivators. Notably, 17% of Millennials and 16% of parents point to packaging and presentation as reasons they would still choose premium, highlighting opportunities for targeted positioning.
What It Means for Brands
The cocoa shortage isn’t just a supply chain issue. It’s reshaping shopper expectations and shopping behavior.
- Transparency matters: Shoppers want clear communication about why prices are rising.
- Affordability drives loyalty: Shoppers are willing to trade down or find a substitute when chocolate crosses their personal price threshold.
- Segmentation is key: Demographic cohorts, such as income and generation, show distinct responses in their chocolate purchasing habits amidst the cocoa shortage—differences that brands can address with tailored messaging and strategies.
As inflationary pressures persist, brands that balance transparency, affordability, and differentiation will be best positioned to retain loyalty. Interested in uncovering how shoppers interact with your brand during the cocoa shortage? Reach out to hello@numerator.com or your Numerator Representative today.
