PROMO SHIFT DASHBOARD

Discover how promotions are changing for today's consumer.

Numerator's Promo Shift Dashboard provides a monthly touchpoint to learn how brands and retailers are driving promotions as consumers face increasing prices and recessionary pressures. Check back each month to see how the promotional landscape is adjusting to address consumer needs.

Latest Update: 11/16/2022 | Updated with a highlight on upcoming seasonal holidays!

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October 2022 Promotions Recap

Classic seasonal categories for Thanksgiving and Black Friday saw upticks in early October vs year ago, but are in a lull in the last week of October.
Overall, promotional volume has slowed down by -5% driven by a reduction in weekly ads. However, online bonus pages have reached all-time highs–up by 60% in October vs last year.
Offer types have stayed stable in October with some upticks in w/Purchase/Qty offer type.
32% of consumers say they use store ads when shopping–up by 2pp compared to October last year.

Seasonal Highlight: Thanksgiving and Black Friday categories are in a lull.

Core Thanksgiving categories ramping up to Halloween saw a boost in promotional volume vs YAG with Rice & Stuffing Mixes along with Turkey up +32% and +21%, respectively. However, the week of Halloween, all tracked categories saw a lower volume compared to last year.

Black Friday categories excluding video game consoles, saw an uptick of at least +20% in the first week of October vs YAG. This rise falls in line with sale events like Amazon Prime Early Access & Target Deal Days occurring the same week. Video game consoles saw a rise week of 10/23/22 driven by Microsoft promoting the sale of a free digital download for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II with the purchase of a Xbox console. Since then, the promotional volume has slowed down.

Promotional volume has slowed down driven by weekly ads.

Promotional ad block volume has dropped by 5% compared to last year for the month of October due to a softening with weekly ads. Online promotion share of voice has stayed relatively stable, driven by bonus pages continuing to grow (+60%) while Web promotions is slightly down (-8%).

Promotional offers are staying stable in October.

w/Purchase/Qty offers have grown by more than 60% compared to last year for the month of October. However, the share of voice has stayed relatively small. Save and sale price tactics have stayed the predominant offer type.

Promotion of private brands has slowed.

Coming from a share of voice of 45% in September, private label promotional share of voice has dropped by over -16pp in October. However, this is still on par with October 2021 share of voice which is at 28%.

Consumer sentiment towards utilizing promotions is reaching 2022 highs.

Throughout most of 2021, consumer sentiment toward saving behaviors had dropped.

However, as rising prices hit all-time highs, behaviors toward checking store ads and brand switching for a deal have grown significantly. 1 in 3 consumers claim they are checking store ads and using coupons to save money which is an all-time high for 2022.