Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI)
Key findings from Numerator’s February CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household purchases edged back up in February 2026, increasing by 0.26% after declining slightly in January 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 2.7% as annual inflation ticked higher in February after several months of cooling.
- Low income and Gen Z consumers experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods as prices have increased 33.7% and 36.0% respectively for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 31.8% national average.
- Regionally, consumers in the South and West census regions have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, though the Midwest has seen stronger month-over-month inflation over the past few months.
METHODOLOGY:
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that is consistent with the structure of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index.
The index is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side, offering visibility into consumer behavior as prices evolve.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
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