• Consumer spending on QSR/Restaurants and on the Grocery Sector were correlated in 4-week rolling periods for each of the weeks during the COVID period (3/9/2020 - 2/7/2021).
• Similarly, correlations between each individual Grocery category and QSR/Restaurant spending were calculated over the same COVID analysis period.
• The correlation for each Grocery category is indexed to the average correlation observed for the overall Grocery Sector to provide the likelihood that increased spending on QSR/Restaurants will result in a decrease in spending for a given Grocery category.
• The categories with the highest index score are most likely to be negatively affected when consumers return to pre-COVID QSR/Restaurant spending behavior.

Meat: Highly Vulnerable. 50% more likely than the average grocery category to have a negative response in sales when QSR/restaurants reopen as consumers swap the grill for a menu.

Herbs & Spices: Highly Vulnerable. 46% more likely to have a negative response in sales when QSR/restaurants reopen as at-home food preparation declines.

Condiments: Moderately Vulnerable. 19% more likely to have a negative response in sales as consumers stop eating 3 meals per day at home.

Packaged Bakery: Moderately Vulnerable. 13% more likely to have a negative response as consumers increase mobility and purchase baked goods from QSRs

Dairy: Moderately Vulnerable. 8% more likely to have a negative response as consumers cook less, using fewer ingredients and consume fewer drinks and snacks at home.

Frozen Foods: Wait & See. Some categories are more vulnerable than others to a negative response.

Baking & Cooking: Wait & See. While at-home, consumers might have developed a baking habit which might reduce the vulnerability of this category.