The Numerator Shopping Behavior Index to Monitor COVID-19 Impact

Numerator is now publishing a weekly Shopping Behavior Index to provide needed visibility into consumer buying behavior shifts driven by the Coronavirus. 

The Numerator Shopping Behavior Index tracks U.S. consumer buying behavior versus year ago across 14 retail channels covering the full omnichannel consumer buying experience. This provides needed visibility into shifts in consumer buying across retail channels, especially as they shift with the spread of the Coronavirus due to increased demand and limited inventory. This report will be available during the duration of the outbreak only.

Numerator publishes consumer behavior data in near real-time to provide brands and retailers the freshest insights available. The Numerator Shopping Behavior Index uses live data, which is essential to understanding dynamic conditions. Featuring live data, the Index refreshes with additional data uploads over time.

Notable Changes:
Given the time panelists are granted to upload their receipts from in-store and online trips, we have restated week 8 to reflect the additional receipts we have received.

We have restated Online given the trailing time for ecommerce receipt processing to better reflect anticipated growth.

Overall spending picks up steam with 13 of 14 channels still trending higher vs. 2019

• Dollar & Club surge, overtaking Health & Specialty as the top 2 spiking channels as consumers stock up on household essentials

• Mass & Food spending accelerates with Online staying strong vs. YA

• Health spending decelerates as consumers converge in channels with wider product selections

Trips per HH accelerate in advance of shelter-in-place with Club, Online and Mass seeing biggest gains YoY

• Food, Drug, Dollar and Online also capture more trips as consumers stock up on household essentials

• Trips decelerate in Beauty, Liquor and Pet as consumers focus trips in stock-up channels

Spend per trip remains fairly consistent versus 2019, with dollar stores experiencing the only notable increase in basket size.

• Spend / trip overall looks on par with year ago

• Beauty & Drug capture more spend per trip

Households out shopping stays high, indexing over 110 in 12 channels

• Club and Health Stores have highest household interest

Source: Numerator Insights YTD 2019 and 2020