Digital ordering has become a regular part of the restaurant experience, with 3 in 4 U.S. households using limited service restaurant (LSR) digital ordering channels in the past year, more than 12 million additional households since 2023. As adoption begins to level off, the focus for restaurants has shifted from digital adoption to guest behavior. Where are guests ordering, how often are they returning and what does that mean for restaurant brands?
Numerator’s verified purchase data provides a broader view of restaurant guest behavior, examining the role of different ordering channels, how repeat behavior varies by restaurant brand and delivery provider and where guests go after their first marketplace delivery order.
Understand each ordering channel’s role in the guest relationship
Restaurants have many ways to reach guests, but each ordering channel can serve a different purpose. Some guests visit in person, others order through a restaurant’s app or website, and some rely on third-party delivery platforms. Each route can play a role in bringing in new guests, building loyalty and encouraging repeat visits, but that role may look different for each restaurant brand.
To understand these differences, Numerator examined how ordering channels correspond to guest spending, visit frequency and repeat behavior, along with what happens when guests first order through a third-party delivery platform. The analysis looks at whether those guests return and if they eventually begin ordering through other channels.
Analyzing Jersey Mike’s, Panera Bread and Wendy’s individually allows us to explore how the same ordering routes relate to guest behavior across different restaurant brands.
Repeat behavior reveals the distinct strengths of ordering channels
Across Jersey Mike’s, Panera Bread, and Wendy’s, guests who use two or more ordering routes have an outsized impact on sales. At Jersey Mike’s, multi-route guests make up 18% of customers but account for 36% of sales. We observed similar patterns at Wendy’s and Panera: multi-route guests represent 14% of customers and 28% of sales at Wendy’s and 8% of customers and 20% of sales at Panera.
However, when analyzing the behavior of guests who use only one ordering route, which ordering channel drives the highest repeat rate varies by restaurant.
At Jersey Mike’s, marketplace delivery guests have the highest repeat rate (53%) and annual spending ($103), while brand-owned digital guests visit Jersey Mike’s most frequently, averaging 3.7 trips annually. Marketplace guests particularly prioritize food quality, with 41% citing taste or quality as a reason to return, compared to 28% of the limited-service restaurant (LSR) marketplace benchmark.
Panera Bread achieves the strongest guest engagement through brand-owned digital ordering. These guests lead in purchase frequency, annual spending, repeat rate and loyalty, averaging eight purchases, $114 in annual spending, and a 56% repeat rate at Panera Bread. Convenience is important to these consumers, with 48% of brand-owned digital guests citing the ability to order ahead for pickup, compared to 37% of the LSR benchmark.
At Wendy’s, physical ordering remains key for. In-store guests average 8.3 purchases annually, compared to 6.1 among marketplace delivery guests. Both consumer groups have similar repeat rates (59% and 58%), although marketplace guests spend more at Wendy’s annually ($136 vs. $108).
The strongest ordering channel depends on the restaurant. Higher spending doesn’t always translate to more frequent visits, and the route associated with the strongest repeat rate isn’t necessarily the same at every restaurant.
As a first touchpoint, marketplace delivery shapes the guest journey
Market place delivery represents a relatively small share of new-to-chain guest entry, accounting for just 3% to 6% of new guests across Jersey Mike’s, Panera Bread and Wendy’s. Yet among guests entering through marketplace delivery, 76% of Jersey Mike’s and 75% of Panera had no observed purchase at the respective restaurant in the prior 26 weeks. At Wendy’s, 58% suggest marketplace delivery serves a larger share of existing guests compared to Jersey Mike’s and Panera Bread.
Across all three restaurants, these guests also bring different consumer profiles. Guests who ordered first through marketplace delivery are more likely to be Gen Z or millennial and have children compared to each brand’s average guest. What they value when dining varies, from convenience for Jersey Mike’s guests to adventurous eating for Panera guests and family mealtimes for Wendy’s guests.
What happens after the first observed order reveals how the relationship develops. Brand-owned digital entrants were most likely to return, including 47% at Jersey Mike’s and 46% at Panera, compared to 39% and 36% among marketplace delivery entrants for those same restaurants. However, marketplace entrants who returned continued to show meaningful engagement at each restaurant, with spending and repeat rates above their respective brand-owned digital guests.
Marketplace delivery isn’t always a one time introduction to a brand. Some guests return through the same platform, while others begin ordering through additional channels. Both behaviors matter when evaluating the guest relationship beyond the first order.
What’s next for restaurant leaders
For restaurant leaders, the goal isn’t necessarily to move every guest into a brand-owned channel. Restaurants should base their strategies on what brings guests in, what keeps them coming back and how each ordering channel contributes to the business. Numerator’s webinar on Building the Digital Guest Relationship, featuring a live Q&A with DoorDash, we explored what restaurants can do to best engage guests across digital ordering channels
- Recognize what each channel brings to the business. Third-party delivery platforms can reach consumers looking for delivery who may not have a specific restaurant in mind, while brand-owned apps often serve guests who already know where they want to go. Understanding these differences can help restaurants tailor their promotions, loyalty strategies and guest experiences.
- Give guests a reason to order again. Once a guest discovers your restaurant, the focus should be on what will bring them back, whether through your app or a third-party delivery platform. Restaurants should consider how the ordering experience, food quality and convenience influence guests’ decisions to return.
- Measure the relationship beyond the first order. Track how often guests return, what they spend, what they buy, and whether they use other ordering channels over time. A guest who continues ordering through a third party delivery platform is just as important to understand as one who uses your app.
Numerator’s verified purchase data helps brands understand and track how guests engage across channels, where relationships are strongest and what happens after the first order, with the ability to survey guests based on specific purchase behaviors to understand their motivations, preferences, and future intentions.
