At Expo West, Numerator’s Nick Keswani (SVP, Mid-Market & Emerging Brands) joined Chomps’ Matt Landen (SVP of Business Development) to present “After the Hype: How Real Trends Mature—Lessons from Protein.” The session explored what comes next for one of the most talked-about forces in food and beverage: the rise of protein.
Once a breakout trend, protein is now the dominant macronutrient across categories. But its rise is unfolding amid a noisy cultural backdrop—especially on platforms like TikTok, where trends spread quickly, often without credibility. This raises a key question: Is protein peaking, or entering a more disciplined phase of growth?
Drawing on insights from Bain, Numerator, and others, the session examined whether protein’s momentum is sustainable—and what it will take for brands to win as the category matures.
Part One: Foundation and Framework
This study wasn’t about celebrating protein—it was about testing its durability. Chomps partnered with Bain to analyze four areas: consumer need states, market dynamics, brand and loyalty performance, and long-term potential.
Numerator provided behavioral data on what consumers actually buy—including essential metrics for understanding the durability of a trend, such as trial, repeat, source of volume, and loyalty—paired with survey insights to understand the “why” behind those decisions. This combination grounded the analysis in real, repeat-driven behavior, mitigating the limitations of recall-based data.
Other signals that point to durability were also layered in. Google search interest grew steadily from 2010 to 2020, with an impressive 7% compound annual growth rate. Protein macro tracking trends also demonstrate stickiness—nearly 40% of consumers now track protein intake, with most intending to continue.
Finally, Numerator’s research shows that more than half of consumers are actively trying to increase protein intake, driven by tangible benefits such as weight management, healthy aging, fitness, and satiety. Unlike fad diets, protein solves everyday needs and is reinforced through feedback loops—consumers feel fuller, snack less, and see consistent results, strengthening the habit over time.
Part Two: Why Protein Endures
Over the past four years, protein-forward brands have outpaced traditional snacks, with seven of the ten fastest-growing brands centered on protein. That growth isn’t random. It’s consolidating around clear, functional benefits—a hallmark of durable trends.
The dynamic is simple: protein brands are driving strong household penetration, and that’s where durability takes hold. Clear benefits drive trial, trial drives repeat, and repeat builds habit. The question is no longer whether protein will last, but which brands will capture that repeat behavior.
Protein also aligns with the most durable macro shifts: broad appeal, rising awareness, and clear, functional benefits. It’s less of a passing fad and more like lasting infrastructure in how consumers make food choices. As the trend matures, foundational formats will drive repeat, while newer formats can spark trial—but not all will stick.
Protein is now entering a more disciplined phase. The real story isn’t about a spike in interest, but how a trend scales—through adoption, habit formation, and, eventually, normalization.
Part Three: Science and Structural Tailwinds
Protein’s durability is reinforced by both biology and economics. According to Morgan Stanley’s Protein Consumption: More Room to Boom analysis, protein intake per kilogram of body weight still trails 2005 levels, leaving real headroom for growth grounded in science.
Most consumers have a daily protein target of roughly 75 to 100 grams, spread across meals and snacks, with snacking playing a central role. According to Morgan Stanley, 69% of consumers eat protein snacks daily, signaling consistent, habit-driven behavior. Even as protein prices outpace other categories due to a greater inflationary impact, consumers aren’t pulling back. Instead, they’re reallocating spend toward products that offer predictability through clear claims and nutrition labels.
Protein is now in its “middle innings,” where success depends less on distribution and more on repeat and loyalty. In this stage, on-packaging claims are table stakes—brands win by building habits.
Part Four: Demographic & Format Expansion
Numerator’s research shows that protein has indeed gone mainstream. A recent survey of over 1,000 consumers reveals that over 90% of consumers pay at least a moderate amount of attention to it, more than sugar, fat, or calories. This interest spans generations and actually increases with age: 62% of Boomers cite paying close attention compared to approximately half of Gen Z and Millennials.
While 55% of consumers prefer protein from whole foods, many are also turning to bars, shakes, and fortified products. Still, behavior remains anchored in familiar formats like yogurt, bars, and cheese, with some hesitation toward more processed options. And while high protein is a key purchase driver, taste ultimately leads—most consumers prioritize flavor first, with protein content as a secondary consideration.
As the category matures, growth is shifting from broad expansion to concentration among the brands that truly meet consumer needs. There’s still whitespace—over 1 in 5 consumers don’t use fortified products but are open to them—but only products that balance function and flavor will drive repeat.
Part Five: GLP-1 as the Stress Test
GLP-1 medications represent one of the largest shifts in consumer behavior in decades, reshaping how users eat and even think about food. Focus shifts from cravings and convenience to satiety, nutrient density, and efficiency—revealing which product propositions are resilient and which are not.
Understanding this shift is critical: Numerator GLP-1 research shows nearly 1 in 5 consumers are using them. Adoption is growing, particularly for weight loss, and is expected to accelerate further as more accessible formats enter the market. Users are spending more on key protein than non-users—including shakes, protein water, and meat snacks—reinforcing protein’s role as a priority nutrient.
In response, many brands are leaning into protein as a strategic growth driver, creating high-protein, high-fiber offerings—like Oikos’ Fusion yogurt or Propel’s Clear Protein—to better align with GLP-1-driven needs. Retailers like Target are also increasing shelf space for protein-forward products, as demand grows for portion-controlled, nutrient-dense options.
In short, GLP-1 highlights what’s durable: as calories compress, consumers choose more deliberately. Products that meet essential needs continue to grow, and protein stands out as a clear beneficiary.
Part Six: Implications for Brands
Protein hasn’t peaked—but the rules have changed. As the category matures, growth becomes more disciplined and concentrated, and brands must change how they compete. On-pack claims like “high protein” or “low sugar” have become the baseline. Winning brands will differentiate through credibility, consistent value, and—most importantly—driving repeat behavior.
Protein’s evolution offers a broader lesson for brands across categories: as trends mature and hype fades, success shifts from driving trial to sustaining habits. Brands that align their innovation, positioning, and portfolios with how consumers actually build habits will be best positioned for long-term growth. Reach out to Numerator to understand how your brand is performing within the protein landscape and what these shifts mean for your long-term strategy.
