Numerator Releases Advance Projection of Consumer Price Index

CHICAGO, Nov 9, 2022 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a data and technology company serving the market research space, has released its first Numerator Inflation Report, an advance projection of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report measures inflation for food-at-home overall, as well as for cereals and bakery products; meats, poultry, fish, and eggs; dairy and related products; fruits and vegetables; and nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials. 

According to Numerator, seasonally adjusted prices for all food-at-home purchases increased 0.6% between September and October, a modest deceleration from the 0.7% increase between August and September. Inflation for fruits and vegetables remained high, accelerating to 1.9% month-over-month, compared with 1.6% previously. Inflation decelerated for cereals and bakery products, down to 0.4% month-over-month from 0.9% previously, and for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials, down to 0.3% month-over-month from 0.6% previously. The inflation rate remained the same this month compared with last month for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, at 0.4% month-over-month, and for dairy and related products, at 0.3% month-over-month.

Between October 2021 and October 2022, prices for food-at-home increased 12.3% overall, prices for cereals and bakery products increased 15.6%, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 7.6%, prices for dairy and related products increased 15.6%, prices for fruits and vegetables increased 11.3%, and prices for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials increased 12.1%.

Consumers have reacted to higher prices for food-at-home items by shifting to lower-cost private-label brands, by shifting to lower-cost retailers, and by reducing the amount of items they buy. Overall, consumers are paying approximately 5% more for their monthly food-at-home basket while buying 9% fewer items.

The Numerator Inflation Report is produced and published by Numerator under the leadership of Numerator Chief Economist, Dr. Leo Feler. The report uses Numerator’s first-party and real-time consumer data, aligned with the methodology the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate the CPI. Please note the Numerator Inflation Report is not meant to replicate the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly CPI release.


Numerator is a data and technology company bringing speed and scale to market research.  Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide consumer understanding for the market research industry. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide and 80 of the top 100 CPG brands are Numerator clients.


The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose.  The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.



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