Lays, Hellmann’s, Ball Park, Sweet Baby Ray’s, and Bush’s Best Poised for Pre-Fourth of July Spikes

CHICAGO, June 25, 2024 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released data on Independence Day 2024, sourced from verified purchase data and a sentiment survey of over 5,500 consumers on their 2024 holiday intentions. Overall, 73% of consumers plan to celebrate Independence Day / Fourth of July, with white consumers, those living in the Midwest, and Boomers+ more likely to celebrate. With 83% of consumers planning to buy food for the holiday, brands and categories typically associated with picnics and cookouts are expected to see the highest boosts in household penetration.

Consumer Survey Findings:

  • Independence Day celebrators plan to spend the holiday with others. 73% of consumers plan to celebrate the Fourth of July with the top plans including: gathering with family and friends (58%), grilling or barbecuing (56%), attending a public celebration (31%), cooking or baking at home (26%), and hosting others at their home (18%).
    • Holiday plans vary by generation and regionality. Compared to all celebrators, Gen Z is three times as likely to say they will go out for drinks (19% vs. 6%) and twice as likely to go out to eat (13% vs. 5%) or order food for takeout or delivery (10% vs. 5%). Midwestern consumers are more likely to attend a public celebration such as a parade or fireworks (39% vs. 31%), while Western consumers are more likely to travel for the holiday (16% vs. 11%).
  • Nearly all celebrators plan to shop for the holiday – and food and alcohol top shopping lists. 94% of consumers plan to make a purchase for the Fourth of July, with food items being the most popular (83% plan to purchase), followed by alcoholic beverages (48%), non-alcoholic beverages (38%), decorations (23%) and party supplies (21%).
    • Beer is the preferred alcoholic beverage for Independence Day. Among those who plan to purchase alcohol, beer (75% plan to buy) is the top choice, followed by spirits or spirit-based drinks (40%), wine (38%), and hard seltzers or canned cocktails (35%). Consumers in the Northeast are more likely to say they will purchase wine (51% vs. 38%), while consumers in the West are twice as likely to purchase champagne or sparkling wine (17% vs. 8%).
  • The majority of shoppers plan to buy from grocery or big-box stores. 63% of Independence Day shoppers plan to buy their supplies from grocery stores such as Kroger and Publix, 54% expect to buy from big-box stores such as Walmart and Costco, and 26% expect to shop at liquor stores.

 Consumer Purchase Data Findings: 

  • Traditional picnic food brands and categories see increased household penetration in the two-week lead-up to Independence Day. Last year, the top five brands that spiked in household penetration during this period were Lays, Hellmann’s, Ball Park, Sweet Baby Ray’s, and Bush’s Best. The top 10 categories to see penetration increases were package rolls & buns (+7.0 points vs. prior two weeks), hot dogs (+5.5), mayonnaise (+4.6), ready-to-drink/RTD alcohol beverages (+3.0), ice (+3.0), chips (+2.9), sausage (+2.5), beer (+2.4), dips (+2.3), and ice cream & novelties (+2.3).
    • Category boosts vary by US region. In the West, four beverage types make the top ten boosted categories—water (#3) and soft drinks (#4) see more growth than beer (#9) or RTD alcohol beverages (#10). In the Northeast, mayonnaise is the top boosted category—higher than any other region—and whipped toppings (#6) and fountain beverages (#9) make the top 10 list.
  • Alcohol and condiments see a marked sales boost in the lead-up to the holiday. Alcohol saw a 10.2% sales increase in the two-week lead-up to Independence Day 2023, and condiments saw a 9.5% sales increase.

Fourth of July Lead Up: Top Brands by Increase in Household Penetration

Numerator Insights, 6/21/2023 – 7/4/2023 vs. prior two-week period 

Brand Increase in HHP
Lays +4.7
Hellmann’s +3.7
Ball Park +2.7
Sweet Baby Ray’s +2.7
Bush’s Best +2.1
Kraft +2.0
Oscar Mayer +1.8
Mountain Dew +1.8
Cool Whip +1.5
Tostitos +1.5

Numerator’s Q2 2024 Holiday Preview survey was fielded to 5,577 consumers in April 2024 and highlights consumers’ celebration, shopping and spending plans for five key holidays occurring in May, June, and July 2024. Over 1,000 shoppers shared details of their Independence Day plans. Purchasing insights were compiled using Numerator’s 150k household Total Commerce Panel, looking at data in the two-week lead-up (6/21/2023-7/4/2023) to Independence Day 2023 versus the prior two-week period.

About Numerator:

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research.  Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.


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