Inflation Cools Overall in March but Remains Disproportionately Elevated for Southern, Low-income, and Gen Z Households
CHICAGO, April 8, 2026 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, released its March 2026 Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) with an advance read on inflation trends across everyday consumer goods, featuring expanded breakouts by income level, generation, and U.S. census region. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases decreased 0.02% in March following a 0.19% increase in February and a 0.33% decrease in January. In March, prices for everyday goods are up 2.0% versus a year ago. A similar trend is expected for the comparable categories covered in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI release scheduled for Friday.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data cover approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
“March’s data reinforces that the path back to price stability will remain uneven,” said Paul Stanley, Senior Economist, Numerator. “While cooling inflation is welcome news, escalating tensions in the Middle East pose a renewed risk, with rising costs across supply chains that could put upward pressure on prices in the months ahead. That uncertainty is showing up differently across households: according to our March sentiment data, lower-income consumers remain focused on rising prices, while higher-income households are more concerned about global conflicts that could shape inflation in the months ahead.”
Additional key findings from Numerator’s March CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household purchases softened slightly in March 2026, decreasing by 0.02% after increasing in February 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 2.0% as annual inflation slowed in March after a hotter February.
- Low income and Gen Z consumers experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods as prices have increased 33.5% and 35.4% respectively for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 31.6% national average.
- Regionally, consumers in the South census region have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, though the Midwest has seen higher month-over-month inflation over the past few months.
For a methodology description of the Numerator CGPI, or to download the data charts, visit numerator.com/inflation.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
METHODOLOGY
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that is consistent with the structure of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index.
The index is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side, offering visibility into consumer behavior as prices evolve.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.
