What can we expect for retail shopping in the next few years?
The end of physical shopping? The rise of AI? While some may say that soon everything will happen online through your computer, the reality is a bit more grounded than we think. Numerator found that 54% of consumers cite in-store as the channel growing in importance for discovery, even as digital behaviors accelerate around it.
That contradiction between where we think consumers are and how they actually shop and feel defines the current moment in commerce. What we’re witnessing is both the continued growth of eCommerce and its transformation into something broader, more embedded, and far less linear, that blurs the lines between online and in-store: digital commerce.
How has online shopping trended over the years?
Online shopping was present prior to 2020, but its impact was restrained.
The majority of U.S. households had shopped online, but their behavior was sporadic and intentional in 2019. Engagement was limited, and online stores represented only a small fraction of total shopping trips. Discretionary purchases like apparel, electronics, and home goods dominated. However, everyday needs such as groceries and household staples remained rooted in physical stores.
Product discovery was also quite similar. Traditional media stood as the main tool. Digital media existed, but largely sat on the wayside. To put it another way, commerce back then had lanes, and consumers moved between them predictably. Then those lanes disappeared as COVID-19 shook up the world.
Forced into digital environments for work, connection, and consumption, consumers developed new habits that extended beyond necessity during the pandemic. Grocery shopping trended online. Restaurant occasions shifted to delivery. Entertainment became streaming. The digital interface became not just a convenience, but a default.
Today, digital connection is constant. Consumers now spend hours each day across mobile devices and computers, with younger generations pushing that boundary even further. This constant connectivity has altered how consumers are moving through the purchase journey. Discovery is no longer confined to a single moment or channel. Instead, it is unfolding across multiple touchpoints.
How are consumers discovering and buying today?
If the traditional funnel implied a linear sequence from awareness to consideration to purchase, then today’s reality looks more like a web.
Consumers now discover products everywhere from in-store aisles to social feeds and retailer apps to AI-powered interfaces. Numerator learned that consumers have, on average, more than three points of influence in discovering new products and they are visiting 68 retail banners in a given year—exposing them to new brands and product assortment.
This expansion is changing how a shopper might notice a product in-store and how to they evaluate it online. They now could compare prices on a mobile device, read reviews through an AI-generated summary, and ultimately complete the purchase through a third-party marketplace. The journey is no longer owned by a single source. Rather, it is assembled from multiple sources of influence that brands must learn to segment properly.
Additionally, brand leaders will need to rethink not just how their products are being discovered but when their products are being purchased. Once limited to planned, intentional purchases, online shopping has trended to be across the full spectrum of need states. It now supports both ends of the spectrum: large, pantry-stocking trips and immediate, fill-in needs.
Omnichannel innovation has made this possible. Services like Click & Collect have redefined the role of digital commerce, blending the scale of a full grocery trip with the immediacy of in-store access. With penetration growing from 53% of households in 2019 to over three in four shoppers today (77%), these models have removed one of the final barriers to online adoption: timing and intentionality.
How has online shopping changed in terms of assortment and platform?
As digital commerce expands, so does assortment.
Retailers that used to operate within a fixed floorplan can now operate without the physical constraints of shelf space, enabling broader product offerings and deeper category exploration. Third-party marketplaces have further amplified this effect, allowing retailers to compete more directly with dominant players by expanding selection.
For consumers, this means more choice—the number of brands consumers purchase on Walmart.com and Target.com has more than tripled since 2019. Shoppers today purchase from a wider range of brands online than in the past, which fragments loyalty. However, there is a paradox in play. While retailer platforms offer scale, brand-owned experiences often deliver stronger satisfaction. Over half of consumers (53%) rate brand websites as better experiences than multi-brand retailer sites.
Numerator also found that consumers engaging with a brand through its own site often differ meaningfully from those encountering it in traditional retail. Differences in demographics, lifestyle, and motivations highlight the importance of understanding not just who the consumer is, but where and how they engage. This difference between reach and control is becoming a defining strategic question for brands navigating digital commerce.
Further complicating the landscape is the emergence of other digitally native commerce environments. Beyond direct-to-consumer sites, social media platforms are becoming transactional hubs. While purchasing through these channels is still developing, consumer openness suggests significant headroom for growth.
How is AI changing online shopping experiences?
With the rise of generative and agentic AI, consumers can now discover products, compare options, evaluate value, and complete purchases within a single, integrated experience. This is a fundamental shift because the steps of the shopping journey become simultaneous.
AI’s role in shopping remains relatively small today (ChatGPT represents less than 1 in 10 transactional queries), but its influence is growing rapidly, particularly in discovery and consideration. Prior Numerator research shows that AI tools are already assisting consumers in synthesizing product research, comparing prices across retailers and aligning decisions with personal needs or goals.
At the same time, the data powering these experiences introduces a new tension. Consumers appreciate personalization for its efficiency and relevance, but many also view it as intrusive. Concerns around data collection, transparency, and control are especially pronounced as AI becomes more embedded in the shopping experience.
Privacy is not a new issue but in the context of AI-driven commerce, it becomes more immediate. For brands and retailers, this creates a delicate balance. They must deliver tailored experiences without overstepping, and they must leverage data without eroding consumer trust. Increasingly, the solution lies in transparency and the use of willingly shared or “zero-party” data.
What’s next for digital commerce?
Looking ahead, brands and retailers can expect digital commerce to extend beyond phone and computer screens.
Numerator found that consumers shared their interest in a range of emerging technologies—from virtual try-ons (20%) to voice assistants (16%) to shopping through connected devices (12%)—suggesting a future where commerce is embedded across environments that don’t exist directly on a phone screen. Yet enthusiasm is tempered by hesitation. When asked to describe the future of shopping, consumers express both excitement and uncertainty driven by price and fear.
Which brings us back to the point mentioned at the beginning of this analysis—despite the expansion of digital commerce, the physical store is still a space for discovery and modality fulfillment. A majority of consumers (55%) still cite in-store as a key discovery channel, and many believe its importance is growing (54%). And that importance is forged by trust that retailers and brands have with consumers. When asked which platforms they would feel comfortable completing an AI-powered purchase, consumers were more likely to say a retailer or brand website over a dedicated AI platform.
How can brands and retailers navigate the new commerce landscape?
For brands and retailers, the shift to digital commerce is about understanding new behaviors that blend across channels, platforms, and digital tools. Several imperatives emerge for brand and retail leaders looking to win with these online shopping trends:
- Design for context, not channel. Consumers behave differently across environments. Strategies must reflect the nuances of each touchpoint.
- Compete on both experience and value. Seamless comparison raises the stakes on pricing, while fragmented journeys increase the importance of differentiation.
- Invest in trust as infrastructure. From AI recommendations to personalization, transparency is critical to sustained engagement.
- Integrate, don’t isolate. The future is not digital or physical only. They are operating in tandem.
