66% of Consumers to Shop Differently; Baking/Cooking & Alcohol Sold-at-Grocery Likely to Win
CHICAGO, October 28, 2020 – Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released Thanksgiving insights through a consumer sentiment survey of 2,000 verified shoppers to understand how people plan to celebrate, shop, and spend for Thanksgiving. In addition, an analysis of purchase data projects how shifting consumer behaviors during the COVID period could impact Thanksgiving 2020.
More than 9 in 10 consumers (93%) plan to purchase items for Thanksgiving 2020, with more than two-thirds of consumers (68%) expecting to celebrate the holiday differently than last year. Two-thirds (66%) also expect to shop differently than last year. Additional findings include:
More people will be comfortable shifting their Thanksgiving spend online.
Based on the average growth (41%) in household penetration for Click and Collect orders during COVID, Thanksgiving 2020 has potential to see an additional four million households doing their Thanksgiving shopping through Click and Collect services, as people look to avoid longer stock-up trips and crowded stores.
More Thanksgiving grocery trips will include alcohol.
In 2019, 8% of Thanksgiving grocery trips (defined as grocer trips in the two weeks prior to Thanksgiving) included beer, wine or spirits in the basket. During the COVID period (March 2020 to present), the number of grocery trips that included an alcohol purchase grew by 19.8%, on average. Given this growth, the number of Thanksgiving 2020 trips that include alcohol will likely increase by an additional 21 million trips. Broken out by category, an additional 9 million Thanksgiving trips are expected to include beer, 8.5 million expected to include wine, and 5.7 million expected to include spirits.
Consumers new-to-baking will drive Thanksgiving basket growth.
The past seven months saw significant growth in household penetration for categories such as Baking & Cooking, with these new buyers skewing male, non-white, younger (Gen Z or Millennial), urban, and living alone. Based on this increase in household penetration, an estimated 10% more of Thanksgiving turkey trips this year may include baking and cooking ingredients — representing approximately 500,000 additional shopping trips, with a basket size that is about 19% larger than Thanksgiving 2019.
Some holiday food categories are at-risk for trade-down.
Selected categories are at risk of trade down to less expensive private label brands as consumers gain familiarity with private label and have concerns about the economy. Among the categories most commonly purchased during Thanksgiving, baking nuts, seeds, and chips & bars are the most at-risk of being substituted with private label counterparts, followed by pies and pie-making ingredients, refrigerated packaged soups, sugar and sugar-substitutes, and baking powder and soda.
Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has ~2,000 employees worldwide. The company blends proprietary data with advanced technology to create unique insights for the market research industry that has been slow to change. The majority of Fortune 100 companies are Numerator clients.
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