Numerator Releases Advance Projection of Consumer Price Index
CHICAGO, Jan 11, 2023 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a data and technology company serving the market research space, has released its monthly Numerator Inflation Report, an advance projection of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report measures inflation for food at home overall and its subcomponents including cereals and bakery products; meats, poultry, fish, and eggs; dairy and related products; fruits and vegetables; nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials; and other food at home.
According to Numerator, seasonally adjusted prices for all food at home purchases increased 1.2% in December, an acceleration from the 0.5% increase in November. In December, seasonally adjusted prices for cereals and bakery products increased 0.4%, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.8%, prices for dairy and related products increased 0.9%, prices for fruits and vegetables increased 0.8%, prices for nonalcoholic beverage and beverage materials increased 0.1%, and prices for other food at home increased 1.5%.
On a year-over-year basis, between December 2021 and December 2022, prices for food at home increased 11.4% overall, prices for cereals and bakery products increased 14.2%, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 8.6%, prices for dairy and related products increased 14.3%, prices for fruits and vegetables increased 8.6%, prices for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials increased 11.2%, and prices for other food at home increased 13.1%.
In response to higher prices and reflecting the shift from goods to services and from staying home to going out, consumers have cut back on the number of items they purchase overall. These cuts have been larger among lower- and middle-income consumers and in discretionary sectors. The sectors showing the largest declines in unit purchases relative to a year ago are sports, electronics, home & garden, toys, and tools & home improvement. The sectors showing the smallest declines in unit purchases relative to a year ago are pet, entertainment, limited-service restaurants, grocery, and apparel. These declines relative to a year ago reflect lower quantities, not necessarily reduced dollar value of sales (please see Numerator’s Advance Retail Sales Report for changes in the value of nominal sales by sector, to be released on January 17, 2023).
Within the grocery sector, lower-income consumers (with annual household income below $40,000) have reduced purchased quantities by 7.9% relative to a year ago, middle-income consumers ($40,000-$80,000 annual household income), have reduced purchased quantities by 10.5%, and higher-income consumers (over $80,000 annual household income) have reduced purchased quantities by 1.3%. Within grocery, consumers have cut back more on higher-cost items such as fresh meal kits, frozen foods, and meat, and they have cut back less on lower-cost foods and daily essentials, such as bread, dairy, produce, and pasta & noodles.
The Numerator Inflation Report is produced and published by Numerator under the leadership of Numerator Chief Economist, Dr. Leo Feler. The report uses Numerator’s first-party and real-time consumer data, aligned with the methodology the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate the CPI.
Table 1: Change in Consumer Price Index, by expenditure category, December 2022
Table 2: Change in Consumer Price Index, by detailed expenditure category, December 2022
Table 2 continued: Change in Consumer Price Index, by detailed expenditure category, December 2022
Table 3: Change in quantities purchased, by sector and income, relative to a year ago, December 2022
Table 4: Change in quantities purchased, by grocery department and income, relative to a year ago, December 2022
ABOUT NUMERATOR
Numerator is a data and technology company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide consumer understanding for the market research industry. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide and 80 of the top 100 CPG brands are Numerator clients.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
