Numerator Releases Advance Projection of Consumer Price Index
CHICAGO, Dec 12, 2022 (GlobeNewswire) – Numerator, a data and technology company serving the market research space, has released its monthly Numerator Inflation Report, an advance projection of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report measures inflation for food-at-home overall, as well as for cereals and bakery products; meats, poultry, fish, and eggs; dairy and related products; fruits and vegetables; nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials; and other food at home.
According to Numerator, seasonally adjusted prices for all food-at-home purchases increased 0.1% between October and November, a deceleration from the 0.4% increase between September and October. Seasonally adjusted prices for cereals and bakery products and for other food at home declined by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Seasonally adjusted prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased by 0.1%. Seasonally adjusted prices for dairy and related products increased by 0.2%. Seasonally adjusted prices for fruits and vegetables increased by 0.6%. And seasonally adjusted prices for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials increased by 0.3%.
Between November 2021 and November 2022, prices for food-at-home increased 11.6% overall, prices for cereals and bakery products increased 14.5%, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 7.0%, prices for dairy and related products increased 15.4%, prices for fruits and vegetables increased 8.9%, prices for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials increased 12.7%, and prices for other food at home increased 13.6%.
Consumers have reacted to higher prices for food-at-home items by shifting to lower-cost private-label brands, by shifting to lower-cost retailers, and by reducing the amount of items they buy. Overall, consumers are paying approximately 4% more for their monthly food-at-home basket while buying 9% fewer items. High-income consumers have reduced the number of grocery items purchased by 1.6% year-over-year, whereas low and middle-income consumers have reduced the number of grocery items purchased by 11.7% and 11.1% year-over-year, respectively.
The recent declines in fuel costs and disinflation in producer prices likely indicate continued disinflation for food-at-home prices going forward.
The Numerator Inflation Report is produced and published by Numerator under the leadership of Numerator Chief Economist, Dr. Leo Feler. The report uses Numerator’s first-party and real-time consumer data, aligned with the methodology the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate the CPI.
Numerator is a data and technology company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide consumer understanding for the market research industry. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide and 80 of the top 100 CPG brands are Numerator clients.
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.