Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI)
The index provides an advance read on U.S. inflation trends across everyday consumer goods, grounded in what people are actually buying. This consumer-centric view of inflation provides data segmented by income level, generation, and census region. Built on verified buyer data, the index captures price changes and how purchasing behavior shifts in response. The Numerator CGPI closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index while offering added visibility into real-world consumer behavior.
Latest Update: 4/8/2026
Next Update: 5/10/2026
Latest Findings: March 2026
ANNUAL INFLATION
+2.0%
YoY change in prices for everyday household purchases
MONTHLY INFLATION
-0.02%
MoM change in prices for everyday household purchases
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
29.6%
say rising prices are a top concern for the year ahead
- Prices for everyday household purchases softened slightly in March 2026, decreasing by 0.02% after increasing in February 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 2.0% as annual inflation slowed in March after a hotter February.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods as prices have increased 33.5% and 35.4% respectively for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 31.6% national average.
- Regionally, consumers in the South census region have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, though the Midwest has seen higher month-over-month inflation over the past few months.
Inflation Trends, Overall
Inflation Trends, By Income
Inflation Trends, By Generation
Inflation Trends, By U.S. Census Region
Methodology
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that is consistent with the structure of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index.
The index is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side, offering visibility into consumer behavior as prices evolve.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
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