Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI)
The index provides an advance read on U.S. inflation trends across everyday consumer goods (not including gas), grounded in what people are actually buying. This consumer-centric view of inflation provides data segmented by income level, generation, and census region. Built on verified buyer data, the index captures price changes and how purchasing behavior shifts in response. The Numerator CGPI closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index while offering added visibility into real-world consumer behavior.
Latest Update: 7/13/2026
Next Update: 8/7/2026
Latest Findings: June 2026
ANNUAL INFLATION
+3.4%
YoY change in prices for everyday household purchases
MONTHLY INFLATION
+0.70%
MoM change in prices for everyday household purchases
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
39.4%
say rising prices are the top concern for the year ahead
- Prices for everyday household purchases accelerated in June 2026, increasing by 0.70% after a 0.51% increase in May 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 3.4% as annual inflation edged up in June for the third consecutive month.
- Low income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 35.7% and 39.4%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 33.8% national average.
- Regionally, consumers in the South census region have continued to experience higher levels of inflation since 2018.
Inflation Trends, Overall
Inflation Trends, By Income
Inflation Trends, By Generation
Inflation Trends, By U.S. Census Region
Methodology
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index. Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The index is calculated from an average of approximately 7 million verified, item-level transactions each month provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Since the index uses receipt-level purchase data, Numerator’s CGPI reflects the actual prices consumers pay after promotions, coupons, and loyalty discounts are applied. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy in real-time.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends that can be viewed across demographic groups to explain how inflation is experienced across different segments of the population.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
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